“Race by Race, District by District, and What We Need To Do To Win

by: DanG

Mon Dec 01, 2008 at 8:45:04 PM EST

That’s Those races are where I want to focus my efforts today.  We’ve all heard enough about how Obama won Virginia, and we all know how Mark Warner beat Gilmore: an unstoppable force meets a very movable object. What the fuck is that supposed to mean? It makes no sense. But I want to focus on where we failed and succeeded in Congressional races.  What went right? What went wrong? How do we win in 2010? I want to go race by race in the Congressional races this year. Unnecessary. Note: these are just the observations of a political enthusiast who has been raised in surrounded by Virginia Politics. I welcome civilized debate. And–nobody needs to take these criticisms personally. They are not meant to insult, but to help us improve. I welcome debate below. Awfully repetitive today, aren’t we?

District 2: Glenn Nye

Virginia Beach, like Fairfax County, may soon be a District all to itself because of population. (Wait, stop here just a minute. Flying Dodo has something to tell you. Virginia Beach has a quarter of Fairfax’s population, and is growing at a rate that is comparable to the rest of the state. It’s not going to gain or lose much in reapportionment. What kind of retard really thinks that Virginia Beach will be its own district?! Ok, carry on.) Understanding Nye’s win, and how he can hold onto the seat in 2010, requires looking at the 2004 and 2006 races as well as 2008.  Nye’s victory has as much to do with Phil Kellam as it does with Thelma Drake.  B, but let’s go all the way back to David Ashe.  I remember joining the online Democratic Community in Virginia in 2005, and contributors on Raising Kaine were referring to Ashe’s 2004 loss as “close.”  I went out of my way to question people on (what were you questioning them “on?” A table? The floor?) about whether or not they thought ten points qualified as close; (why all the semicolons? It just looks sloppy next to all your other mistakes) My opinion was that it did not, especially since we (face it Dan, you had NOTHING to do with Owen Pickett holding the seat, so stop saying “we.”) Owen Pickett had held the seat for many years with Owen Pickett, and Jody Wagner had barely lost to Ed Schrock.  The truth was obvious,: Ashe got beaten badly by a candidate who had only been the official nominee for two and a half months.  I began advocating on behalf of Phil Kellam for Congress: he had the resume, the financial support, and the connections in Virginia Beach, which makes up the vast majority of the District.  I still stand by the my decision call to support Kellam over Ashe in 2006; the polls at the beggining of the race having Kellam up over Drake by almost ten points verify it.  B, but Kellam failed at what Nye excelled in: the campaign itself.  Kellam’s numbers steadily declined, and he ended up barely losing the race by a slim margin.  Nye, conversely, started out solidly behind Drake, but ran a superb campaign.  He took firm stances on his positions (you don’t take stances on your positions.) the issues, and latched himself on to Mark Warner and the “change” meme that was so popular this year.

Now (when?) Barack Obama barely won the Second District this year, which is an impressive feat in such a heavily military district.  And There isn’t any significant college vote in the district, but I’m sure increases in African-American votes (there isn’t a significant college vote in the District) helped Nye.  But Nye outperformed Obama, and won every locality in the Second, therefore, Nye’s victory cannot be attributed to Obama.  Drake’s unpopularity combined with Nye’s discipline as a campaigner were the keys to her fall his victory. Now, For Nye to win in 2010, where rumors are that some Republican heavyweights down at the Beach want in are interested in running, he’ll have to do a few things. First, he must stay in the news.  He’s a relative relatively unknown, even after the race.  Secondly, he has to endear himself to military voters.  Nye will be given a spot on the Armed Services Committee: he must USE IT and be a constant supporter of active military as well as veterans.  Jim Webb is starting to make serious inroads in this community, and Nye should work closely with the Senator on these issues.  And Third, Nye must remain fiscally conservative.  Even though there is a small populist fervor in Virginia Beach, and Populism won out in other districts (particularly the Fifth), the fact remains that the Beach is primarily a business community.  Note the election of Bank Industry Member Will Sessoms as Mayor over long-term Incumbent Myra Obendorf on primarily budget and spending issues (I don’t even know where to start with this sentence.).  And Owen Pickett was one of the founding members of the Blue Dog Coalition.  Though I believe Nye can stay relatively moderate on social issues, he must remain fiscally responsible on the economy.  As Webb was a good choice for a Senate ally on military and foreign policy issues, I would suggest Nye align himself with Mark Warner on economic issues.  I honestly believe Nye has a great chance of being re-elected.  However, he must be careful.  Virginia Beach has been getting better for Democrats, but it is STILL a Republican town.

District 3: Bobby Scott

The Third District is an example of Gerrymandering at the its very worst.  Take a look at a picture map of it: African-American areas are carved out and isolated to protect Republicans.  The GOP sacrificed the district to the Democrats by making it a district primarily based on race, which in my mind is pretty vile.  That being said, Bobby Scott is a tremendous representative.  The district couldn’t ask for more.

District 4: Andrea Miller

This race, more than any other, is a product of Barack Obama’s success.  I had suspected that Obama would do well in the Second.  I had thought he might win, though I gave McCain the benefit of the doubt due to Military voters.  And t The Fifth District turned out exactly as I had thought it would; (YOU CAN ONLY USE SEMICOLONS TO SEPERATE TWO COMPLETE THOUGHTS. OMG.)– a McCain victory, but Obama made serious in roads.  The Fourth caught me off guard: Obama won it by about a percentage point.  Andrea Miller never really had a legitimate shot at victory; Forbes is well liked in the Fourth.  Hell, I met him at the shadplank once, and he seemed like a very likeable person. But Miller she did better than at least two candidates who were given much more hype on the blogs.  This, to me, is representative of what a good top of the ticket can do for a bottom.  This might not be the best race for 2010, but there might be a pretty significant shot in 2012 with Obama and Webb to at least keep the GOP on their toes.  Getting this race within 10 percent would be a huge accomplishment.  The problem is that any candidate who could make a legitimate run at Forbes knows that it is likely a suicide mission.  This district, like the first, shows some potential, but not likely for a few years (You said this already. We know you like hearing yourself talk, but adcomms won’t.) The best thing fourth district Democrats the Democrats in the Fourth District can do is to start planting the seeds by continuing to build the grassroots.

District 5: Tom Perriello

I have commented on how Glenn Nye ran a great campaign.  As a matter of fact, I think he ran the third best Campaign in Virginia this year.  And I think t The second best was probably Barack Obama, who had an incredible GOTV program.  But the best campaign, buck for buck, in the Commonwealth was Tom Perriello’s.  Virgil Goode is practically an institution in the Fifth District.  He’s represented the district it for over a decade as a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican.  Although I thought Perriello had incredible potential, even I thought that victory, though possible, was highly unlikely.  Goode was a favorite son, and though he had said some things that made people uncomfortable, those very same things were in line with what many people in the Fifth actually thought.  But Tom Perriello proved to be an able fundraiser and an even more skilled campaigner, and his message was perfect for going after the scandal-plagued Goode.

Now s Some people give Obama credit for Tom’s win.  I’ll admit, Obama may have been a key factor for Perriello.  The Fifth District has a significant student population due to the Universtiy of Virginia (cough cough GO HOKIES cough), and a sizeable African-American community.  However, the increases by Obama weren’t as significant as some have suggested: African-American turnout grew 1%, and youth turnout was another 1%. So Obama’s candidacy may have given a small boost to Perriello’s turnout, and it is possible that 1-2% increase might have been what pushed Periello over the edge.  B, but those who focus on that are missing the point: Al Weed lost to Goode by almost 20 points.  Even taking away the 2% that Obama might have given Perriello, that still makes it 49-51 in Goode’s favor.  Yes, Perriello might have gotten a little boost from Obama this year, but it was Perriello who took a race that was not even remotely competetive in 2006 and made it a virtual tie.  With a race this close, you can point to a lot of factors. But the truth of the matter is that t The reason this race was one won (HOLY SHIT ARE YOU INBRED?) is the result of one candidate: Perriello.  However, because of the closeness of the race, and the chance that Obama may have been an important reason for victory, winning re-election will count significantly on who the GOP nominee is in 2010, and if Perriello can replicate turnout.  Goode will no doubt want a chance for a rematch in 2010, and will count on Obama not being on the top of the ticket.  However, many other Republicans in the General Assembly will see this as their one and only shot at higher office, and may seize it the opportunity.  I actually believe Goode would be the toughest 2010 opponent for Perriello, while new blood will be easier to define on our terms (I’m just deleting this since you’re babbling.).  Perriello must also not forget that he represents a conservative district, and must remember to moderate his stances.  He must also keep alive that economic populism that was so popular in the Fifth this year.  Like Nye, Perriello must also keep himself in the news.  As a newcomer who was elected in a very Democratic year to represent a District that usually votes red, Perriello must be in the news for being independent, and for fighting for his district against either party.  Those looking for liberal representation might end up disappointed; if Perriello goes hard to the left, he’ll be looking at one term.  And f For an elected-official with so much potential, and in my mind could one day be seen in an even higher office. that would be a real shame.

District 6: Sam Rasoul

This is a hard one race for me to analyze without a smug sense of satisfaction, because I have a pretty strong urge to say “told you so.”  Sam Rasoul himself, on this blog, called me a coward when I said I didn’t think he could get close, let alone win.  For advocating support of his temporary opponent Drew Richardson, I was subject to ad hominem attacks on my character by Rasoul’s supporters.  Needless to say, I was not happy, and due to that event found it hard to support Sam in the election.  Now, most candidates have what I like to call “teh hardcorz” (wow, are you a 12 year old girl?), or online supporters who would eat molten rock for their guy and/or gal (I’m still debating some Kucinich people over what I see as the absurdity of the proposed “Department of Peace”), and Rasoul was no exception.  In fact, I think at the beginning of the year Rasoul had a more prominent online presence than any congressional candidate running (save maybe Leslie Byrne).  Now, I’ll admit, Rasoul is a very charming guy in person.  A, and I can see why he inspired supporters as he did;. His personality combined with and the fact that Dems hadn’t challenged Goodlatte in a long time was probably very moving. And u Unlike his Democratic opponent, Rasoul had a passion to run, while Richardson appeared much more like the reluctant candidate.

But l Let me post a link to Rick Howell’s bit on this race: http://rickhowellspeaks.blogsp… Notice how Rick has taken some hits for his opinions.  I’d also ask you to notice that most of the attackers have been strong Rasoul supporters since day one, at least one of whom went after me early last year for going Nostradamus on everybody and predicting these results pretty accurately.. I must admit, however, that I do have some disagreements with Rick.  First of all, I think he places too much importance on Democratic loyalty and activism.  Let’s face it, Democrats are the minority in the sixth.  You could get 100% of the Democratic vote, but unless you win a significant majority of Independents and cut into the GOP vote, you can’t win.  My problem with Rasoul wasn’t his supposed lack of Democratic credentials.  My problem was, but with his lack of congressional credentials, which Rick does mention, and I think should’ve been the focus of his op-ed. He Rasoul was too young, and most importantly, without did not have enough life experience.  Glenn Nye was young when he ran, but he had already freed hostages from terrorists.  Perriello was young too, but, he had already started faith based organizations while serving many years out of the country as a missionary.  Sam Rasoul could point to some small businesses, but in the end there was nothing exemplarary about them him, nothing to really make him stand out as a citzen that was above ordinary.  I’ve always said that if you’re running for office, you better be so damn good at your profession that you can better serve your community by bringing what made you so good into the government (great lawyers could make great legislators, fantastic businessmen/women could make great administrators, etc.). Rasoul was primarily running on charisma, and you can’t win a race in a red district with virtually no money on charisma alone.  I think that Democrats, in general, had a pretty good slate this year, and that was the reason that Virginia was the best state (or commonwealth, in this case) overall for Democrats out of all 50 in November. In only two races could I say “wrong candidate, wrong campaign.”  This was one of them. Sam Rasoul seems like a nice enough fellow, even if his supporters could get pretty rabid from time to time.  B, but he just wasn’t a qualified candidate.  Barack Obama did better in this district, and Mark Warner won it.  That means there was a significant Obama-Warner-Goodlatte vote.  That’s just absurd, especially on Obama. (On Obama? WTF?) Anybody who voted for Barack Obama should’ve seen some conflict in voting for Goodlatte, a polar opposite.  But that just goes to show what kind of race that was.

I’m not sure if I agree with Rick’s committee plan for identifying candidates, but at least he’s trying to identify the problem, and I think the criticism he’s getting for it is unfounded.  You have to be able to admit when your candidate of choice screws up. I will admit that Phil Kellam, a friend who I wish all the best to, ran a poor campaign and lost what should’ve been an easy Democratic pick-up.  It was painful, but it happened, and we had to identify where Phil made his errors.  Ben Tribbett correctly identified back in 2007 that a Democrat who ran a nose-to-the-pavement grassroots campaign could win, and he was right.  We need to identify why Rasoul lost, and it seems to me that the reason wasn’t lack of online support, or party disunity, but just not being qualified for the position.  Do I think Rasoul should be banished from politics?  No.  If he’s still got the itch, there is probably something for him to run for.  But Congress?  Not a chance.  Not now, at least.

District 7: Anita Harke

As much as I hate to say it, Eric Cantor is a rising star amongst the Republicans, and should the Republicans take back the House in the near future, he may very well end up as Speaker.  Cantor has a lot of what Republicans are looking for: he’s from a Southern state, so he keeps with Republican electoral strategy.  He’s very conservative, and appealing to the base.  Finally, he’s Jewish, and Republicans are usually of the belief that minority voters will vote for their own minority out of habit (example Michael Steele for RNC Chair).  Anita Harke, from what I can tell, ran a solid campaign on with VERY limited resources.  But frankly, Cantor may be the one Republican that we don’t have the ability to defeat right now.  I really believe that the First, Fourth, and maybe (with some better lines boundaries after fair redistricting) even the Sixth, could sometime in the next two decades become competetive with the right candidates and the right message.  But Eric Cantor has this seat for as long as he wants it.  The only way we have a shot?  I is if he moves on to bigger and better things.

District 8: Jim Moran

The District is, like the third, carved out by the GOP to be their a sacrificial lamb.  They don’t expect to win it.  I really think that Jim Moran, in a more competetive seat district, would have too much controversy sorrounding him to win (again, are you high?), but this seat is so blue that the primary is the real election what matters more.  The general election is just for show.

District 9: Rick Boucher

My secondary congressman. Though I claim residency and vote in the Second, and if you ask me I’ll tell you my Congressman is Glenn Nye, I will admit that because I live out in Blacksburg most of the year, and I have more contact with Rick Boucher than I do any of our other the rest of Virginia’s congressional delegation.  Rick gets some harsh words occassionally from environmentalists, and got ripped for not supporting Waxman’s takeover, but let me just say this: it’s a bit different when you live out here, people (adcomms really won’t like this.).  NoVAns and some Hampton Roads bloggers attack Coal like nobody’s business.  B, but come take a visit out here–coal is a way of life. It’s all people know, and it is what people want to keep doing. Without it, thousands would be out of a their jobs.  I watched a debate last year in 2007 between a strong Democrat who lived just outside of Blacksburg and a member of the Virginia Tech Environmental Coalition.  I won’t lie to you, it got loud.  Though I agree we need to start shifting over the to cleaner and safer energy, the lack of respect some people (especially those who don’t even live out here) show for a culture and life that they don’t share is insulting.  This battle for energy shift can’t be won by brute force, no more so than the War on Terror can be won that way. This requires diplomacy, and it requires patience.  Boucher has been an expert on this, and because of it has the admiration and respect of all his constituents.  So much so that i In a year when Obama got trounced out here, Boucher ran without opposition.  Congressman Boucher is a wonderful representative for the working men and women of his district, and my only hope is that he doesn’t retire for a long, long time. This is a seat Rick will hold easily until he retires then, and even after he does we have some conservative Democrats in the General Assembly who could run for this seat and win. But o Once Rick retires he does, it the district becomes a battleground. And it will require heavily on Democratic activists conceding that we’ll need a Blue Dog-style Democrat to keep the seat. (seriously, require heavily on? too much engrish possibly?)

District 10: Judy Feder

What can I realistically say that hasn’t be said already?  We had a very long, thorough conversation on this on Josh’s “post-mortem.”  I agree with much of what he said.  Apparently, he hurt some feelings in the process.  Judy Feder, like Rasoul, just doesn’t seem to fit this district.  Again,, and like in the sixth, I have to bit my tongue on the “I told you so”, but this one it is a bit easier to do.  I was on Mike Turner’s side in the primary (though I had no vote, so my support always felt unnecessary and invasive), but Feder’s people supporters for the most part were civil in their debate over who would be the better nominee.  At least, nobody called me a coward or an idiot.  I suggested voters in the Tenth should go with Turner based on the idea that Judy, while an amazing fundraiser, just doesn’t seem to click fit in the tenth.  I don’t know why, but she doesn’t.  Some people have said it’s sexism, other claim that she comes across as too liberal and partisan (that was my suggestion), others claim that her campaigns have just been too negative.  I’m not entirely positive.  All I know is that it is very rare for a candidate to do worse his/her their second time around.  Hell, e Even Al Weed did better in 2006 than 2004. Now, I’m not going to compare Feder to other races, (umm, you just did.)suffice to say that b Both Warner and Obama comfortably carried the Tenth.  Feder should’ve at least had enough coattail effect to pull the race into single digits.  The Tenth, much like the eleventh, third, and second, is seeing an increase in voters, and most of whom seem to be inclined to support Democrats. The Eleventh District, where most of the Dem blogosphere in Virginia resides, is an example of how effectively one can take advantage of that growth.  And Second District Dems haven’t been too shabby either.  But Feder failed in the Tenth on this one. These voters should’ve been ripe for the picking.  Instead, Feder actually lost support from 06, which means one of two things: either Independents, and some Democrats, who backed her in 06 backed Wolf in 2008 this year, or that new voters registered by Obama and Warner backed Wolf due to a bad campaign by Feder. I find the first option to be very unlikely.

Now, I do understand this voter-ticket separation of top from bottom better in this race than in the sixth. (You really need to fix this sentance. No idea how, but it’s terrible.) After all, Obama ran as a pragmatic, post-partisan candidate, and Wolf has worked very hard to gain the reputation of a moderate.  A centrist Independent in this race could’ve very easily voted Obama-Warner-Wolf without seeing any a problem.  However, that’s an issue that any candidate needs to address in 2010.  I would suggest that if you want to make Wolf look extreme and out of touch, you should run to the middle. But r A candidate running in the center in 2010, you would make your a “center-right” candidate look “solid right”.  By running a more liberal candidate like Feder, you Democrats give your their opponent the advantage of appearing more centrist, and therefore expanding his pool of potential voters.  And though the tenth is slowly turning blue, it is still on the purple side.  The wider your pool is, the better your shot at victory.

I don’t think Feder is without use, however.  Anybody who says that is just trying to piss people off. Democrats in the Tenth should find some party fundraising position for Judy–she’s fantastic at raising money. and just because she shouldn’t be the candidate herself doesn’t mean she can’t contribute. Unfortunately, But there have even been some rumors, like one on NLS, that Feder wants a THIRD shot at Wolf.  Seriously?  Democrats, please, step away.  Feder is the second of only two Virginia candidates this year that I can say without hesitation “wrong candidate, wrong campaign.”  Feder’s attempts to go after Wolf have been without any notable success.  Be it the candidate’s fault, or the campaign’s fault, it certainly isn’t the District’s fault.  Yes, Wolf is a long-time incumbent, and victory there may be simply impossible until he leaves office.  B, but we can certainly do better than a 20 point loss.  We’ve seen Feder’s strategy, and it has failed. A lot of you that the liberal blogosphere ridiculed Mike Turner for calling himself a Blue Dog (which I also label myself) (this just makes you sound whiny) and trying to run a campaign from the center.  Maybe, in 2010, we should give something like that a shot.  We’ll undoubtedly have less money, and no top of the race up-ticket.  It would be interesting to see if we could do better solely on a message change.

District 11: Gerry Connolly

It is no secret I supported Leslie Byrne in the primary.  A lot of people at the Beach who knew me were very surprised, as Gerry Connolly seemed much more like my type of candidate (at least as far as the issues go).  I’ll admit, I didn’t donate to Leslie because of her positions on the issues. It My support was out of respect and thanks for what she did to help Jim Webb in 2006.  Without her help, I’m not sure Webb would have won the primary, and we wouldn’t have taken back the Senate.  So f For that, her courage to step up and support a guy who was taking criticism for being a former Republican, I supported her.  When she lost the primary, I was comfortable with Connolly’s attempt run for Congress, much more so than my friend Ben Tribbett.

In this race, much like in the eighth (wait, are you capitalizing district numbers or not? You’ve done it and driven us crazy this entire rant, and now you stop? CHOOSE ONE.), the primary was the real “Decision 08″.  Connolly was never threatened by Fimian, and it is very likely Byrne would’ve beaten him as well.  This is a district that, as long as the candidate is not a nutjob, will be safe for Democrats for years to come.  Who knows, in ten years, this district may be as reliably blue as Moran’s.  There isn’t much to correct here: reliable GOTV, solid candidate.  Though clearly I had hoped Leslie would win, I feel Connolly will be a fine representative for Fairfax for years to come.

Review

All in all, Democrats have made substantial steps to turning Virginia into a real “blue state.”  However, there are things that we all need to remember.

One: this is not a mid-atlantic state, as some have suggested.  Sure, it might be one in Northern Virginia.  B but it is also a Southern State, as well as an Applachian State.  Virginia is a mix of all these things: of Maryland, Kentucky, and North Carolina.  As such, we cannot expect to run a Maryland race in a North Carolina district.  If the area is Southern, run like a Southerner.  And Southerners aren’t always as liberal (or “progressive”) as you’d always hope.  But to universally call Virginia a mid-atlantic state now that Obama has won it is folly.  We must recognize the potential, and the flaws problems, in individual districts, and we must campaign accordingly.  Not all candidates work for all districts, and not all platforms work in every locality.

Second Two: we have to be smart, and follow Obama’s lead; pragmatism first (OMG MORE IMPROPER SEMICOLON USE).  Democrats are at their best with people like Obama, who is willing to appoints Republicans if they’re right for the job–like Warner, who worked with Republicans in the GA to get fix the financial crisis.  Like Webb, who deliberately went out of his way to get Republican support for his GI Bill.  Partisanship is as much a curse as a blessing, and if we are to really be the change we promised the country, it must come secondary to progress.  The people are counting on us to fix their economy and protect the future of this country. Now is not the time to get caught up on hot button issues or to be distracted by labels.  It also means accepting that n Not all Republicans are bad.  Iin fact, some of them are good.  Rather than attacking all Republicans all the time, maybe we should occassionally focus efforts on helping Moderate Republicans in districts that Democrats can’t win.  Follow the President-Elect’s lead: now is the time for our party to become post-partisan.

Third: Last but not least, we need to always remember never to eat our own.  I’ve heard plenty of Democrats say they’d rather lose with a Progressive Democrat than win with a Blue Dog.  That’s just stupid.  Would you rather have half a cookie, or none at all?  This has been killing Republicans recently.  They’re falling behind in the General Assembly because of this (wave at us, Senator Miller!).  They’re in the middle of a civil war between the Business Conservative and the Socially Right-Wing (huh?).  Democrats have a tendency to do this, too.  Idiots at the “Open Left” (not a fan) have decided to try to primary all Blue Dogs (Bush Dogs, as they call ‘em (them! you’re like Sarah Palin! Putting extra effort into speaking incorrectly!!)) for not being liberal enough.  However, remember that many of these Members continue to win in districts that both Bush and McCain won.  Liberals, you know that you represent the more active wings of the party.  Though I have read studies suggesting in Virginia that there are more Moderate and Conservative Democrats than Liberals, the fact remains that the Liberal base is far more active.  Now is not the time to primary Democrats for not being 100% in line with whatever you think.  Now is the time to expand the tent.  Thousands of fiscal conservatives are out in the dark, as evident by Obama’s support amongst them.  Now is the time to reael (wait, how do you real someone in?) them in, to show them that we accept differing views.  Now is the time to be big tent.  There are multiple wings of the party, not just the “Liberal Progressive” wing.  Just because we’re beginning to win doesn’t mean you purge anybody you  fell feel is unworthy.  Please, for the sake of the Commonwealth and the Country, let’s not give Republicans they opening they need to undo all our hard work.

Thanks to everybody who has listened and debated with me for these years.  It has been a blast.  May God Bless you all, and may God continue to bless the Commonwealth, and the United States of America”

Where exactly does this idiot expect to get into law school, again?